中国房地产商面临末日-----外国网站的一篇译文

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Party rulers in China are trapped in a positionthat chess players deeply fear — zugzwang — where any move made puts you atdisadvantage. In China,the potential cost of both action and inaction is economic collapse.
中国政党领袖陷入了象棋中令棋手们胆寒的“楚次文格(zugzwang)”困境——在这种局面下，你所走的任何一步棋都将使你处于不利。在中国，无论行动与否，其潜在代价都是经济崩溃。

China is slowly starting to face the consequences of itsactions — loans grew over 30% a year over the last few years — and inflation isrising fast.  Inflation in developed countries is unpleasant, but itis tolerable.  For a developing country — and China, despiteits size, is still a developing country — it can be catastrophic.  Indeveloped countries, we spend two or three times less on food as a percentageof our income as do people in developing countries.
中国逐渐开始承担行动——在最近几年中贷款每年增长30%——的后果，通胀在快速上升。发达国家的通胀虽令人不快，却可以容忍。而对于发展中国家来说——中国尽管规模大，但仍然是发展中国家——它可能是灾难性的。发达国家食品上的花销占收入的百分比，只占发展中国家的二分之一或三分之一。

Therefore, though food inflation is unpleasant, we have amuch greater tolerance (margin of safety) for it.  While foodinflation the U.S. can meanfewer trips to restaurants or no summer vacation, food inflation in China leads tohunger.
因此，尽管食品通胀（food inflation）令人不快，但我们对它的容忍度（安全边际）要高得多。食品通胀在美国可能意味着少去餐馆或不度暑假，而它在中国会导致饥饿。

The Chinese government is desperately trying to put thebrakes on the economy.  It is shutting off lending to land developersand has raised bank reserve requirements five times thisyear.  However, its success on the inflation front will likely leadto a slowdown of the economy and high unemployment.  Ironically,those were the issues party planners tried to cure when they stimulated thehell out of the economy over the last few years.
中国政府正不顾一切地设法让经济减速。它停止对地产商的贷款，并在今年五次上调银行准备金率。然而，它在抗通胀战线的成功可能会导致经济减速和高失业率。具有讽刺意味的是，这些问题正是党首们在最近几年中为祛除经济痼疾而设法要解决的问题。

China bulls are arguing that the almighty Chinese governmentwill be able to soft-land the economy. Unlikely, I’d say.  Forcedlending was at the core of Chinese economic growth. Simply put, there is toomuch debt to go bad.   According to Ernst and Young, one-third of the$700 billion in loans taken out by local governments may face repaymentproblems.  The People’s Bank of China estimates that Chinese banks’exposure to local government loans is 14 trillion yuan ($2.2 trillion),according to the June 17 South ChinaMorning Post.
看多中国者坚决主张，强大无比的中国政府能够实现经济软着陆。我会说，不可能。强制放贷位于中国经济增长的核心。简单地说，就是要出现大量的不良贷款。安永 （Ernst and Young）国际会计公司表示，地方政府7000亿美元贷款的三分之一可能面临还款问题。南华早报6月17日刊文提到，中国人民银行估计中国银行对地方政府的放款总额是14万亿元（2.2万亿美元）。

Once lending is cut off, property prices will stopappreciating (and likely collapse — that is what usually happens in a Ponzischeme). Also, the overcapacity in the industrial sector and commercial realestate will come to the surface. And suddenly everyone will discover that thevenerable emperor has no clothes.
贷款一旦中断，房地产价格将停止上涨（可能会突然下跌——这是庞氏骗局中经常会出现的情况）。而且，工业部门和商业性房地产领域的生产能力过剩将显露出来。每个人都将忽然间发现，威严的皇帝没穿衣裳。

I often hear the argument that Chinawill not have a real estate crisis of U.S. proportions because home andcondo owners have to put 30-40% down when they buy.  So where dopeople get the money to buy a house that costs, on average, 8 times theirannual income (a figure several times higher than in the U.S.)?  Someof it comes from savings, and some comes from borrowing from relatives.
我经常听到这样一个观点，即中国不会出现美国那样的房地产危机，因为商品房和公寓的业主在买房的时候要交付30-40%的订金。那么人们是从哪儿弄到钱来购买平均八倍于他们年收入的房子呢（这个数字比美国的要高数倍）？答案是，一些来自储蓄，一些来自亲戚借款。

Let’s pause for a second.  In the 1990s, theChinese banking system basically collapsed.  To revive it, theChinese government took bad loans from banks’ balance sheets and put them intooff-balance-sheet vehicles (Enron would be proud of that financialingenuity).  Banks started to function as though nothing hadhappened. To finance the off-balance-sheet assets, the government set depositinterest rates at very low levels: 1% or so.  In a country with avery high savings rate and 5% inflation, this resulted in a 4% annual loss ofpurchasing power.
让我们稍停一下。在1990年代，中国的银行系统基本垮掉。为了重振银行系统，中国政府从银行的资产负债表中剔出不良贷款，并将其置于表外工具中（安然公司会为这个金融创新感到自豪）。银行开始运转了，就好像什么都没有发生。为了给表外资产提供资金，政府把存款利率定得非常低：1%左右。在这个拥有非常高的储蓄率和5%的通胀率的国家里，这种做法导致购买力每年损失4%。

Chinese consumers were punished severely over the last 10years for the banking crisis of the late ’90s.  And they’ll bepunished even more soon.  Keeping money in the bank didn’t make thatmuch sense, and investment alternatives were limited. However, they could investin an asset that supposedly never declines in price – a house orcondo.  So they did.
由于90年代末的银行风潮，中国消费者在过去十年中吃了不少苦头，他们不久将吃更多苦头。把钱存在银行没有多少意义，其他投资方式也很有限。然而他们可以在一般来说从来不会降价的资产上投资——住宅或公寓。他们真的这么做了。

As Chinaslams the brakes on the economy and as housing prices fall, the banks will loseplenty of money. But more importantly, it is the people who bought tremendouslyoverpriced houses, and their relatives who lent them money, who willlose.  The wealth and hard work of more than one generation will belost, and this kind of pain leads to political unrest.  That is theChinese blacks swan!
当中国经济猛踩刹车的时候，随着房价下降，银行将损失惨重。但是更为重要的是，那些买到天价房的人和借钱给他们的亲戚，将会成为输家。不止一代人的财富和辛勤劳作将会化为泡影，这种痛苦会导致政治动乱。那是中国的黑天鹅（译者：黑天鹅指出乎意料，却有重大影响的事件）

小男孩

[s:78]  [s:78] 好喔好喔

dahai188

众说纷纭，，

此情此景

无知的管理者必然要为自己的愚蠢付出代价

黑泽明

我来叫个好

魄然魂若＇归

。。。。。。。。。。。